Price Predictions for Bitcoin and Ethereum in 2018

We know that in the long run, ethereum will surpass bitcoin, having more utility and its true that probably this will happen somewhere in 2018 or 2019 and any investor with some enough knowledge and experience can figure that out. Historical price chart analysis show that ethereum has and will act different than bitcoin in terms of price in the long run unlike most of the altcoins. But this is nothing in 2018, in which the dominant force for any crypto-currency price action is not the underlying true/fair price but rather a temporary year long bubble growing faster than any valuation. This roller coaster has passed the peak and now going downwards. Ethereum as well will struggle the few months ahead of us in 2018. It is true that a tremendous number of ICOs have built on top of it each adding more value the ether, so that the network is becoming like Facebook kind of common platform of all altcoins. But think about it, it was 20$ in the beginning of 2017. A fair price now could be like 200$. You are not happy with 10 fold return? Well anything on top of that price would be blockchain hype, ethereum as well benefited of the bubble along with all altcoins in 2017, so what makes you think that it did not gain any more attraction than it should in the bubble?

Don’t get me wrong, ethereum is great and probably will solve scalability issues and so on and probably will never fall in to around 20$s again. But it just benefited from the extreme (and mostly temporary) amounts of capital flowing from outside of crypto-world just like any coin. Same applies for many ethereum-like derivatives such as omise-go. It may continue rising when it is down to 200$ or so. And again, will most probably surpass bitcoin in a not- so-long run, as now many altcoins are priced in terms of ether instead of bitcoin.
But this will not happen so fast, never happens immediately, these things takes time. Not now, not in these extremely superstitious market conditions, not in the following 6 months, not before losing the extra 800$ worth of pounds it gained on top of a 200$ fair price.

It is also possible that cardano and neo can rise faster than ethereum, as it is said that 2018 will be the year of interoperability of blockchains. The more such projects such as cardano are implemented, the more bridges are built between small and larger blockchains, the more valuable the smaller projectes become. Enigma with its undervalued secret contracts is also great. But any of these great projects will not experience a sudden sustainable valuation in 2018. No matter how much potential they carry. Sad but true.

Most altcoin devs or admins or mr. twitter hype king John Mcafee (with 720k+ followers) who is no better than wannabe lambo kids will not tell you about these, just none of them. It is hard-to-admit kind of truth. This is not crypto-community want to hear in 2018, but this is what will happen in 2018, mark my words folks. I would not discourage people from crypto in the long run, and the last thing I would want is to mislead people in any way. But believe me it hurts more when you lose lots of your hard-earned money with FOMO (fear of missing out) jumping into the market in the wrong time just because you discovered stuff only recently after a whole big year of already exceedingly fulfilling growth in the market. It is just no surprise that it will slow down and turn backwards at some point.

What I mean is as follows: In the long run, crypto-currencies are the way, going to thought in finance textbooks at universities being milestones of innovation. But this just does not mean that they cannot be in a bubble. This just does stems from the fact that that their prices have attracted investments faster than their growth, just like the .com bubble in 2000s, exceeding their fair price valuation. And this will yield a long term correction. Took a year from 1000$ to 20000$s for bitcoin, will similarly and naturally take another year to come down to 2000–3000$ range. We will not times of 10x returns in a couple of weeks whatever crapcoin you pick. We will not have at least for another 3–4 years for sure.

When things are normal back again on rails, being highly selective”, picking projects / start ups as original as ethereum was in its initial days, crypto currencies can again be a good investment. Maybe this can be supply-chain coins maybe others. Blockchain has a large variety of applications, some will disrupt industries more than others.

Finally a price prediction for bitcoin in 2018. Its just below in the picture. How do I know? It happened in 2014 and this is just how I freaking know. Down below, you see the behavior of bitcoin in 2015. It just amazes me how people overlook what has already happened to crypto-market before.

Let me explain you what happened: back then bitcoin portrayed the same rocket ramp valuation from 100$’s to 1250$’s and look at what followed afterwards. At first, market slowly gets used to prices around 1000$s. And reacts wildly when the price goes down fast with temporary FUD, recovering quickly, resulting in an overall high price volatility. The market is almost nervous like heartbeats of a patient in a hospital. However this does not last long as each time the reaction of the market being less effective than the previous one in the downward trend. Over time, more and more number of people realize that bitcoin price is not going anywhere sudden and buyers are eventually outnumbered by sellers so that many late-investors at this point lose huge sums. After the second half of the year, as one can observe, the volatility drops significantly, smaller highs and lows and just drops silently for two years since the peak! The imaginary negative-slope line joining the 1250$ peak to 250$ dip at the end of the year is more apparent after the mid-2015.

What does this chart show? It just points how powerful emotions and psychological component of investing are compared to the underlying technology. At such times, being aware of investor psychology matters a lot more than being competent in technical aspects of bitcoin. Bitcoin may rise back to 14k$ or so in a few weeks again in Feb 2018 or earlier. But when it goes down again in a falling channel, the market most probably will not react the same way as it did so when market fell down to 9k$s from 14k$s. The reaction will just not be strong enough to fit it back in a higher support/resistance range. And you can guess the rest by contemplating on the picture.

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